Research Summary The notion that the unjustified use of force by police officers is concentrated among a few “bad apples” is a popular descriptor that has gained traction in scholarly research and achieved considerable influence among policy makers. But is removing the bad apples likely to have an appreciable effect on police misconduct? Leveraging a simple policy simulation and data from the Chicago Police Department, we estimate that removing the top 10% of officers identified based on ex ante risk and replacing them with officers drawn from the middle of the risk distribution would have led to only a 4–6% reduction in the use of force incidents in Chicago over a 10-year period.

Policy Implications Our analysis suggests that surgically removing predictably problematic police officers is unlikely to have a large impact on citizen complaints. By assembling some of the first empirical evidence on the likely magnitude of incapacitation effects, we provide critical support for the idea that early warning systems must be designed, above all, to deter problematic behavior and promote accountability.